About BidIndex

BidIndex SUMMER 2024 (Canceled)

CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
Budapest	BDP	HLT	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.00
Los Angeles	LAL	HLT	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.00
Paris	PAR	HLT	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.00
Rome	ROM	HLT	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.00
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES: 03-21-16 BidIndex 2024 Ticker Created (BDP,LAL,PAR,ROM); 09-21-16 ROM HLT; 02-21-17 BDP HLT; 07-28-17 BidIndex 2024 Canceled due to process change and dual-allocation for 24/28

BidIndex Information

BidIndex Description
BidIndex Definitions
BidIndex Archive – BidIndex for previous bids
BidIndex 2022
BidIndex 2020
BidIndex 2018
BidIndex 2016
BidIndex 2014
BidIndex 2012
BidIndex 2010
BidIndex USA for 2012

BidIndex News
BidIndex Helps Us Keep Score (More Info.)

For further questions or additional information please click here.

BidIndex Description

BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids – and possibly gauge its potential success.

This complex model is a result of months of research and development by analysts with expertise in statistics, mathematics and the Olympic Bid process. Information for BidIndex is obtained from both public and inside sources.

The primary model looks at the actual Olympic bids voted on by the International Olympic Committee. GamesBids.com BidIndex will also analyze selected bids with our National Olympic Committee (NOC) model. These are qualifying bids conducted by the NOC’s (e.g. The United States Olympic Committee’s selection for the 2012 bid).

While it is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid, BidIndex combines the current geopolitical and technical status of a bid and projects how it might compete based on past voting patterns. Since the IOC does not always pick the best quality bid, BidIndex does not predict the winner or rank the bids. It is designed to measure the competitiveness of each bid on a static scale.

BidIndex was reviewed in the March 2004 edition of Significance Magazine, a publication by the Royal Statistical Society.

What is BidIndex?
BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids – and possibly gauge its potential success. The model was developed by observing historical trends and results of previous bids.BidIndex numbers can be theoretically used to compare competing bids and the relative strength of bids held in different years (e.g. to compare Paris 2008 with Paris 2012). A higher BidIndex indicates a greater chance of being elected.

Why BidIndex?
It has been observed in the past the IOC members do not vote based on the quality of the bid alone and often results are unpredictable. GamesBids.com wanted to find a way to compare Olympic Bids and normalize the results. BidIndex takes bid quality into account, but also evaluates other important factors such as Geopolitics, IOC politics, public support and other things considered to have an effect on the IOC voters. These results will help our readers gain an understanding into the relative strengths of the bids.

Does BidIndex work?
While no one can guarantee the results of an election, BidIndex will tell you which bids have more of the qualities of successful bids from the past. A highBidIndex number does not necessarily indicate a high quality bid, but a bid similar to other successful bids. When the model is applied to the 2008 bid, these results were obtained based on information a day before the vote:

Bid City	*BidIndex*	Round 1 Votes	Round 2 Votes
Beijing	75.44	44	56
Toronto	63.79	20	22
Paris	58.71	15	18
Istanbul	53.94	17	9
Osaka	53.81	6	–

Although most analysts rated the quality of the Paris and Toronto bids to be higher than Beijing’s, Beijing was successful. BidIndex projects this result.

What causes a BidIndex number to change?
BidIndex numbers change when either the fundamentals of a bid change, a competing bid changes, a competing bid either enters or drops from the competition, or the election fundamentals change. For example, as time goes on a bid may increase government support, lose public support or the IOC may release information such as an evaluation report. These kinds of things affect the day-to-day dynamics of a bid and result in a change of the BidIndex. Early in an election cycle, fluctuations may be more dramatic as new information comes out and categories in the model are filled. Numbers are more accurate as the election day is approached. Occasionally, the BidIndex model may be modified which will also be reflected.

When are BidIndex numbers updated?
BidIndex is updated when fundamentals cause the numbers to change. This can happen in hours or in weeks, depending on how things change. Expect numbers to change more frequently when the selection process begins.

When does a city get listed in BidIndex?
A city gets listed in BidIndex once it has become an NOC confirmed candidate and there is sufficiant data available to generate a BidIndex number.

BidIndex Definitions

City = Applicant City

Symbol = A 3 letter short form of the city

Status = Current listing status

Prelisted = Data is being accumulated for the city to create new BidIndex

Delisted = Bid has ended because (a) city did not make short-list, (b) city dropped out or (c) bid election is over

Halted = Index is waiting to be updated due to significant fundamental change such as the release of an evaluation report or an IOC announcement

MM/DD = The month and day of the last Index change for this city

High = All-time Index high for this City

Low = All-time Index low for this City

Change = Value change from previous Index listing

Index = The City’s current BidIndex value

BidIndex Archive

BidIndex ARCHIVE


CITY	BID	SYM	NOTE	HIGH	LOW	DATE	FINAL
WINTER 2022 ELECTION – 07/31/15
Almaty	W2022	AMY	LEL	56.44	56.44	7/21/15	56.44
Beijing	W2022	BJG	WON	57.01	57.01	7/21/15	58.76
SUMMER 2020 ELECTION – 09/07/13
Istanbul	S2020	IST	LEL	61.96	60.20	2/09/13	61.45
Madrid	S2020	MAD	LEL	58.76	55.10	2/09/13	58.76
Tokyo	S2020	TKY	WON	62.31	59.92	2/09/13	62.14
Baku	S2020	BKU	ELM	43.66	43.66	5/14/12	43.66
Doha	S2020	DHA	ELM	53.08	53.08	5/14/12	53.08
WINTER 2018 ELECTION – 07/06/11
Annecy	W2018	ACY	LEL	55.03	51.44	7/06/11	54.86
Munich	W2018	MUN	LEL	65.83	61.64	7/06/11	65.83
PyeongChang	W2018	PCH	WON	66.29	62.40	7/06/11	66.17
SUMMER 2016 ELECTION – 10/02/09
Chicago	S2016	CHI	LEL	61.24	58.78	10/02/09	61.24
Madrid	S2016	MAD	LEL	59.50	57.80	10/02/09	57.80
Rio de Janeiro	S2016	RIO	WON	61.61	59.73	10/02/09	61.42
Tokyo	S2016	TKY	LEL	61.41	59.20	10/02/09	59.02
Baku	S2016	BKU	ELM	36.85	36.43	6/04/08	36.43
Doha	S2016	DHA	ELM	53.46	52.83	6/04/08	53.46
Prague	S2016	PRG	ELM	37.59	37.17	6/04/08	37.17
WINTER 2014 ELECTION – 7/05/07
PyeongChang	W2014	PCH	LEL	64.99	55.72	7/04/07	64.99
Salzburg	W2014	SAL	LEL	65.35	60.63	7/04/07	62.62
Sochi	W2014	JAC	WON	63.17	56.71	7/04/07	63.17
Almaty	W2014	AMY	ELM	42.28	40.98	6/22/06	42.28
Borjomi	W2014	BRJ	ELM	31.36	30.38	6/22/06	31.36
Jaca	W2014	JAC	ELM	52.68	50.57	6/22/06	52.68
Sofia	W2014	SFA	ELM	47.26	46.72	6/22/06	46.72
SUMMER 2012 ELECTION – 07/06/05
London	S2012	LON	WON	65.07	60.07	7/06/05	65.07
Madrid	S2012	MAD	LEL	61.41	55.32	7/06/05	61.22
Moscow	S2012	MOS	LEL	50.28	45.58	7/06/05	49.58
New York	S2012	NYC	LEL	60.15	56.40	7/06/05	57.59
Paris	S2012	PAR	LEL	66.63	61.83	7/06/05	66.18
Havana	S2012	HVA	ELM	36.40	33.94	5/18/04	36.40
Istanbul	S2012	IST	ELM	59.75	57.25	5/18/04	59.46
Leipzig	S2012	LPZ	ELM	48.47	44.74	5/18/04	48.47
Rio de Janeiro	S2012	RDJ	ELM	62.22	60.77	5/18/04	62.22
WINTER 2010 ELECTION – 7/02/03
Pyeongchang	W2010	PCH	LEL	60.12	40.44	7/02/03	60.05
Salzburg	W2010	SAL	LEL	66.82	45.21	7/02/03	66.82
Vancouver	W2010	VAN	WON	65.31	48.85	7/02/03	65.31
Andorra la Vella	W2010	ALV	ELM	49.06	41.29	9/05/02	41.29
Berne	W2010	BRN	DRP	61.13	54.03	9/27/02	56.56
Harbin	W2010	HBN	ELM	40.70	36.48	9/05/02	40.70
Jaca	W2010	JAC	ELM	50.51	46.04	9/05/02	48.73
Sarajevo	W2010	SAR	ELM	31.35	26.70	9/05/02	26.70
USA 2012 NOMINATION – 11/02/02
Houston	US2012	HOU	ELM	68.11	63.22	8/29/02	68.11
New York	US2012	NYC	WON	69.31	62.85	11/02/02	62.85
San Francisco	US2012	SFO	LEL	69.05	61.88	11/02/02	66.64
Washington	US2012	WAS	ELM	68.42	62.48	8/29/02	68.16
SUMMER 2008 ELECTION – 7/13/01
Beijing	S2008	BJG	WON			7/13/01	75.44
Istanbul	S2008	IST	LEL			7/13/01	53.94
Osaka	S2008	OSA	LEL			7/13/01	53.81
Paris	S2008	PAR	LEL			7/13/01	58.71
Toronto	S2008	TOR	LEL			7/13/01	63.79

DRP = voluntarily dropped out of race; ELM = eliminated by bid process; LEL = lost election; WON = won host city bid

BidIndex 2022

BidIndex WINTER 2022

CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
Almaty	AMY	HLT	56.44	56.44		0.00	56.44
Beijing	BJG	HLT	57.01	57.01		0.00	57.01
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

BidIndex 2020

BidIndex SUMMER 2020

CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
Istanbul	IST	09/02	61.96	60.20		0.51	61.45
Madrid	MAD	09/02	58.76	55.10		2.27	58.76
Tokyo	TKY	09/02	62.31	59.92		0.17	62.14
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

BidIndex 2018

BidIndex WINTER 2018

CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
Annecy	ACY	HLT	55.03	51.44		1.01	54.86
Munich	MUN	HLT	65.83	61.64		0.84	65.83
PyeongChang	PCH	HLT	66.29	62.40		0.12	66.17
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

BidIndex 2016

BidIndex SUMMER 2016

CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
Chicago	CHI	HLT	61.24	58.78		1.23	61.24
Madrid	MAD	HLT	59.50	57.80		0.00	57.80
Rio de Janeiro	RIO	HLT	61.61	59.73		0.19	61.42
Tokyo	TKY	HLT	61.41	59.20		0.18	59.02
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

BidIndex 2014

BidIndex WINTER 2014 – FINAL


CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
PyeongChang	PCH	06/27	64.99	55.72		00.09	64.99
Salzburg	SAL	06/27	65.35	60.63		01.31	62.62
Sochi	SCH	06/27	63.17	56.71		02.22	63.17
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted,DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES: 06-27-07 BidIndex 2014 Update After Evaluation Report | 04-03-07 BidIndex 2014 Update After Bid Books/Visits | 01-09-07 BidIndex 2014 Update Ahead of Bid Book Release | 06-22-06 AMY, BRJ, JAC, SFA Halted after cut | 06-20-06 BidIndex 2014 Updated Ahead of Short-list | 02-28-06 BidIndex 2014 Released | 02-01-06 Bidindex 2014 Ticker Created (ALM, BRJ, JAC, PCH, SAL, SCH, SFA)

BidIndex 2012

BidIndex SUMMER 2012 – FINAL –


CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
London	LON	07/04	65.07	60.07		0.19	65.07
Madrid	MAD	07/04	61.41	55.32		0.19	61.22
Moscow	MOS	07/04	50.28	45.58		0.00	49.58
New York	NYC	07/04	60.15	56.40		0.54	57.59
Paris	PAR	07/04	66.63	61.83		0.00	66.18
SYM = Bid City “Ticker” Symbol (hyperlinks to City description); STAT = Status (PRE=Prelisted, DLD=Delisted, HLT=Halted, or MM/DD of last change); CHG=Change

DATE NOTES: 07-06-05 BidIndex CLOSED | 07-04-05 BidIndex Update/NYC RESUMED | 06-15-05 BidIndex Update/NYC HLT | 05-10-05 BidIndex Update | 11-12-04BidIndex Update | 06-17-04 BidIndex Update/RESUMED | 05-18-04 HVA,IST,LPZ,RDJ – DLD | 05-16-04 BidIndex Update/HLT for shortlist | 02-24-04 BidIndex Update | 01-11-04 BidIndex 2012 Released

BidIndex 2010

BidIndex WINTER 2010 – FINAL


CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
Pyeongchang	PCH	HLT	60.12	40.44		0.07	60.05
Salzburg	SAL	HLT	66.82	45.21		0.27	66.82
Vancouver	VAN	HLT	65.31	48.85		0.36	65.31

BidIndex United States 2012

BidIndex UNITED STATES 2012 – FINAL


CITY	SYM	STAT	HIGH	LOW	*	CHG	INDEX
New York	NYC	HLT	69.31	62.85		3.46	62.85
San Francisco	SFO	HLT	69.05	61.88		2.41	66.64