Sports are primarily about skill and athleticism. Competition is about keeping score. Every Olympic event includes some metric by which an order of finish is determined – sometimes objective and sometimes subjective, but always determining.
The competition to win the right to host an Olympic Games is perhaps the biggest Olympic event of all, but there has been no metric for gauging the candidates before the vote is over and the winner is proclaimed. For a competition that lasts around 18 months, that’s a long time to wait. In traditional elections, independent pre-polls are often used to measure the opinions of the electorate and project probable results, however in Olympic bid elections, the small group of IOC voters usually remain cautiously silent until their ballots are cast.
Earlier this year, GamesBids.com introduced BidIndex, a mathematical model used to determine the likelihood that a bid will be successful – based upon the voting habits of the IOC. By gathering data on several fundamental factors that have historically had an impact on the elections, BidIndex calculates a number that can be used to compare against other bids for the same or any other year. Because the IOC doesn’t always select the best quality bid, BidIndex doesn’t try to either. Instead, it tries to determine the bid that the IOC will most likely select.
BidIndex numbers will change as bids mature and more fundamentals become available for evaluation. The numbers can increase or decrease depending on the specific circumstances. When the model was applied to the 2008 election, Beijing received a high score in accordance with the actual election outcome.
Why do we need to keep score? Well, we don’t – but it makes things a lot more interesting. It’s human nature to want to quantify a competition, especially if you have a stake or interest in it. That’s why shortly before the 2008 election, British bookmaker William Hill published a list of odds on the final five candidates and they were published in the worldwide media. How were these odds derived? Since William Hill claimed that no actual money changed hands, the source of these odds are a mystery. William Hill did not answer our request for information.
BidIndex doesn’t promise to successfully predict the winner, but it does accurately assess the potential of any bid, and how its strengths and weaknesses compare with other bids. At least now we can keep score.
BidIndex is a regular feature published exclusively by GamesBids.com. Read more about BidIndex
