PyeongChang’s 2014 Olympic bid continues to boast top marks while Sochi secures the second best score in the most recent release of BidIndex from GamesBids.com.
With only one week left before the International Olympic Committee (IOC) chooses the winner of this 24-month battle to host the 2014 Olympic Winter Games, BidIndex, the world’s first and most-respected Olympic bid rating system, has produced decisive results based on extensive analysis and research.
Using data gleaned from candidate files, interviews, site visits, IOC documents, and the GamesBids.com Olympic bid archives – this release of BidIndex is an extremely reliable measure of the competitiveness of each bid.
The IOC evaluation report released earlier this month confirmed what BidIndex reported in April – PyeongChang is a fundamentally strong bid that is fully qualified to host an Olympic Winter Games. The Korean City’s score of 64.99 is up 0.09 and has padded its lead since last time. Its well-appointed winter sports park already under construction is the centerpiece for this compelling bid.
The bid remains strong despite some challenges outside of its control. Earlier this year the Korean City of Incheon won hosting rights for the 2014 Asian Games and it is feared that resources may be spread too thinly if PyeongChang were to win the Olympics. Additionally, Tokyo Japan has entered the 2016 Olympic bid race and its supporters could try to divert votes away from PyeongChang in order to preserve the Asian city’s chances at winning two years later.
For the first time in BidIndex, Sochi Russia has received second best marks as the bid shot up 2.22 points to 63.17 – a new high for the City. While the IOC evaluation committee had a few issues with Sochi’s candidacy including the vast construction plans and lack of paralympic experience – the Sochi bid team has countered with an aggressive and massive marketing campaign that culminated with Russian tennis star Maria Sharipova giving a “snowy” tennis demonstration in London before the start of Wimbledon. Research shows that aggressive international marketing reaps rewards in the form of election day votes.
Russian President Valdimir Putin will attend the election and could play a key role in swaying last-minute voters.
Salzburg’s score continued to erode in this release dropping 1.31 points to 62.62 and dropping to third for the first time in the campaign. Having once led this race, the Austrian bid has faced several obstacles including the major blow dealt by the IOC evaluation commission when they reported that only 42% of Salzburg citizens support the bid.
While Salzburg’s bid is otherwise fundamentally strong and could receive enough votes to win – it’s questionable whether it belongs in this race without popular support. During the 2010 Olympic Winter bid campaign the IOC reported that candidate Berne Switzerland received only 42% local support and the city was later forced to withdraw from the race when voters rejected the bid in a referendum. After Denver USA won the 1976 Winter Games bid, unsupportive constituents rejected the idea in a referendum and the Games were instead handed to Innsbruck Austria.
Salzburg officials are not confident that the IOC polling results are accurate and instead point to recent Gallup poll results that show 61% and 81% in favour of the bid.
“I can only assume that there might have been an error in geography or a language problem. I will inform my colleagues in Guatemala about the findings” explained Leo Wallner, IOC Member and President of the Austrian National Olympic Committee who intends to investigate the survey results.
If the results can be explained as erroneous before the election it may recover some votes and could force a BidIndex scoring update.
During the campaign Salzburg faced leadership difficulties, and last month suffered the embarrassment of Austrian Olympic team doping fines imposed by the IOC. Salzburg has been losing momentum over the past several weeks.
The scores remain very close moving into the final election. Scores over 60 indicate that the associated bid has what it takes to get several IOC votes and potentially win. Previous bid winners London 2012 and Vancouver 2010 scored 65.07 and 65.31 respectively.
On July 4, the IOC will vote for the winner in secret ballots. Of up to 102 IOC members votes on the first ballot – a successful candidate will need to get at least 52 to win.
BidIndex breaks up a bid into over 100 fundamental components then determines how much of a factor each has been in past successful bids. The more important a component is, the higher the weighting it receives in the scoring model. The formula is then applied to current campaigns to determine a score. The BidIndex model is based on 10 years of research from over 40 years of Olympic bid data in the GamesBids.com archives.
The 2014 bid marks the fourth installment of BidIndex – measuring the acceptability of bids since the 2008 campaign. For more details, visit the BidIndex.com or send us a question.
