Other than a reshuffling of the leaders in the 2016 Olympic Bid race, there were only minor changes in the latest release of GamesBids.com’s BidIndex, the original and most trusted formula for rating Olympic bids throughout their campaigns. This was the first update since February 14, 2008 and the last before the International Olympic Committee (IOC) selects a shortlist on June 4 in Athens.
BidIndex shows Chicago (60.73, up 0.17) narrowly ahead of Tokyo (60.66, up 0.25) to lead the applicants; former frontrunner Rio de Janeiro (59.90, down 0.92) has dropped to third and Madrid (59.50, up 1.25) stays in fourth while narrowing the gap and boasting the largest increase.
Doha (53.46, up 0.63) remains further back from the top bids despite marking gains since the last update. Lagging behind are Prague (37.17, down 0.42) and Baku (36.43, down 0.42), two bids that have been struggling to find support for their campaigns and to make an impact on the IOC.
The overall results indicate that the 2016 bid is becoming one of the tightest Olympic bid campaigns in recent history with the top four applicants separated by only 1.23 points, less than Madrid’s total margin of increase for this update. There is no clear favorite in this race.
Rumors suggest the IOC might be considering only a three-city short list; if so, the campaign of one of these strong contenders will end next week. But if reason prevails, that list will include at least four and possibly five candidates to even out the competitive field.
Many have already crowned Chicago the leader in this race – a label that bid organizers are trying to lose since media favorites tend to fail their Olympic bids. But Chicago has come out strong with excellent plans, increasing public support, an impressive organization and an important window-of-opportunity for a North American bid.
Tokyo has also come together as a serious contender, putting together a bid with many of the key ingredients the IOC looks for. An Olympics in the center of the city using existing infrastructure and available accommodation should score top marks with IOC evaluators.
Madrid and Rio de Janeiro are repeat bidders from the 2012 campaign; however, Rio failed to make the short list last time. Since then, both campaign teams have learned and improved and Rio has benefited from the experience of hosting the Pan Am Games. IOC evaluators favored Madrid over Rio four years ago; we’ll see if another look by the IOC changes things this time around.
Lack of venues, experience and a challenging climate and environment are hurdles for Doha’s bid, but organizers claim these are all manageable and the IOC should be ready for a change and award the Games for the first time to an Arab nation. Strong financial and public support and experience with the 2006 Asian Games keep Doha’s BidIndex score close to the frontrunners, but it may not be enough for the IOC to include them on the short list.
BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids – and possibly gauge its potential success. London’s winning 2012 bid had a final BidIndex score of 65.07 while Sochi’s winning 2014 Winter Games bids scored 63.17.
BidIndex is not intended to rate the bids based solely on technical quality, but on how the bids will perform based on IOC voting patterns. History has proven that the best technical bids often do not win but other factors such as geo-politics usually have a significant impact.
After the short list announcement an applicant evaluation report will be released and more data will be available to populate BidIndex. Expect an update at that time – as well as further updates as the campaign progresses and more data becomes available. The winner will be elected October 2009 in Copenhagen.
Full BidIndex details can be found on the
